0509号台风暴雨过程分析与暴雨灾害评估   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

盛永  陈艳秋  廖国进  黄阁 《气象与环境学报》2006,22(6):29-33

针对2005年8月8～10日辽宁区域性台风暴雨过程,以常规气象资料、自动站资料及卫星云图资料为基础进行分析。结果表明:暴雨是台风、副热带高压与西风槽相互作用的结果,较好的水汽条件是产生台风暴雨的重要条件之一,低空急流是水汽输送的通道,也是台风暴雨的明显特征之一;结合单站气压连续变化以及云系变化判断“麦莎”登陆时间地点;应用基于概率分析的暴雨事件快速评估模型对暴雨灾害进行评估,评估表明暴雨过程为三级暴雨灾害,属中度级别。  相似文献   

Analysis of the 2012–2013 Torreperogil-Sabiote seismic swarm     

《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth》2016

This study analyses the temporal clustering, spatial clustering, and statistics of the 2012–2013 Torreperogil-Sabiote (southern Spain) seismic swarm. During the swarm, more than 2200 events were located, mostly at depths of 2–5 km, with magnitude event up to m_bLg 3.9 (M_w 3.7). On the basis of daily activity rate, three main temporal phases are identified and analysed. The analysis combines different seismological relationships to improve our understanding of the physical processes related to the swarm's occurrence. Each temporal phase is characterized by its cumulative seismic moment. Using several different approaches, we estimate a catalog completeness magnitude of m_c≅ 1.5. The maximum likelihood b-value estimates for each swarm phase are 1.11 ± 0.09, 1.04 ± 0.04, and 0.90 ± 0.04, respectively. To test the hypothesis that a b-value decrease is a precursor to a large event, we study temporal variations in b-value using overlapping moving windows. A relationship can be inferred between change in b-value and the regime style of the rupture. b-values are indicators of the stress regime, and influence the size of ruptures. The fractal dimension D₂ is used to perform spatial analysis. Cumulative gamma and beta functions are used to analyse the behaviour of inter-event distances during the earthquake sequence.  相似文献   

苹果手机零部件全球价值链的价值分配与中国角色演变   总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1  

康江江  张凡  宁越敏 《地理科学进展》2019,38(3):395-406

产品内分工已成为支配当代企业分工与产品生产的重要模式。研究智能手机生产网络价值分配格局,对辨析中国大陆企业在移动通讯产业价值链中所处地位与演进具有重要意义。论文利用2012—2017年苹果公司供应商数据,以其零部件价值含量与技术要求为测度标准,分析了苹果手机零部件全球价值链的分配特征以及中国大陆企业在其中的地位变化。发现：高价值环节的供应商主要以美国、日本、韩国为主,而中低价值环节则以中国台湾、日本和中国大陆供应商为主,且中国大陆与中国台湾在中间环节占据重要地位。处于价值链高端的供应商分支数量在中国大陆和美国缩减明显,日本、韩国较为稳定,中国台湾增加明显。在价值链的中低端环节,供应商分支趋向中国大陆集中。印度、巴西以及越南等地成为新的中低端价值环节转移承接地。近年来,中国大陆在苹果手机价值链的高端环节得到了提升,长三角、珠三角、京津冀、成渝、中原地区等地逐渐形成了苹果供应商分支的集聚区域,呈现出零部件生产的区域分工特征。长三角(上海-苏州为核心)与珠三角(深圳-东莞为核心),承接了价值链多个生产环节,是中国大陆嵌入苹果手机生产网络的主要阵地。成渝地区既承接了芯片类企业布局,也承接了价值链低端的组装代工和包装服务环节,呈现出在价值链两端双向承接的特征。环渤海、福建及湖南等地主要承接苹果手机价值链的中间环节,而中原地区主要以苹果手机组装与包装服务为主,承接价值链的低端环节。最后,论文从创新驱动、政府作用与外资等方面探讨了影响中国大陆地位提升的因素。  相似文献   

传统村落景观基因信息链与自动识别模型构建——以陕西省为例   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

杨晓俊  方传珊  王益益 《地理研究》2019,38(6):1378-1388

传统村落作为活的文化遗产,承载了大量历史记忆,是地域文化景观基因识别与模型构建研究的重要切入点。以陕西省71个国家级传统村落为例,基于景观基因理论建立陕西省传统村落景观基因识别体系,识别出陕西省传统村落景观基因特征;运用类型学原理和N级编码理论对景观基因进行编码,构建陕西省传统村落景观基因信息链并生成基因谱系;借鉴生物学中“胞-链-形”DNA碱基序列模型,提取出环境基因、建筑基因、农耕文化基因和宗族文化基因四个公共基因作为景观基因元（胞）,以村内道路系统作为基因链,构建传统村落景观基因DNA模型与自动识别模型,以此对传统村落的区位、类型、特征和文化基因进行自动识别。为传统村落景观基因信息有效传承与存储,以及乡村建设动态发展提供理论借鉴。  相似文献   

Examining the sensitivity of spatial scale in cellular automata Markov chain simulation of land use change   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Hao Wu  Zhen Li  Keith C. Clarke  Wenzhong Shi  Anqi Lin 《International journal of geographical information science》2019,33(5):1040-1061

Understanding the spatial scale sensitivity of cellular automata is crucial for improving the accuracy of land use change simulation. We propose a framework based on a response surface method to comprehensively explore spatial scale sensitivity of the cellular automata Markov chain (CA-Markov) model, and present a hybrid evaluation model for expressing simulation accuracy that merges the strengths of the Kappa coefficient and of Contagion index. Three Landsat-Thematic Mapper remote sensing images of Wuhan in 1987, 1996, and 2005 were used to extract land use information. The results demonstrate that the spatial scale sensitivity of the CA-Markov model resulting from individual components and their combinations are both worthy of attention. The utility of our proposed hybrid evaluation model and response surface method to investigate the sensitivity has proven to be more accurate than the single Kappa coefficient method and more efficient than traditional methods. The findings also show that the CA-Markov model is more sensitive to neighborhood size than to cell size or neighborhood type considering individual component effects. Particularly, the bilateral and trilateral interactions between neighborhood and cell size result in a more remarkable scale effect than that of a single cell size.  相似文献   

新冠肺炎疫情对经济全球化的影响分析   总被引：1，自引：6，他引：1  

刘卫东 《地理研究》2020,39(7):1439-1449

新冠肺炎疫情是第二次世界大战以来世界面临的最大危机,给世界带来巨大的冲击,包括人们的心理和生活、经济增长与就业、国家治理及世界治理等。这些影响使很多学者、评论家、大众、企业家乃至政府官员产生了非常悲观的情绪,舆论中不乏经济全球化将终结、全球供应链将大规模调整、世界治理格局将彻底改变等言论。本文通过建立“全球化的三角结构”剖析了经济全球化的动力机制,并结合疫情对世界的主要影响,试图揭示后疫情时代经济全球化的走势。我们认为,资本的“空间出路”、技术的“时空压缩”和国家的开放程度是驱动经济全球化的三个基本力量,这三者的变化及其相互作用结果影响着全球化进程。从动力机制看,全球化是一个没有终点且不断变化的历史过程,它不会倒退,而是波动。过去半个世纪以来,世界各国已经被全球化紧密地联系在一起,相互脱钩的代价极其昂贵,没有国家会选择完全脱钩。所谓的逆全球化现象,是全球化发展过程中世界格局变化及各国应对策略调整的结果。新冠肺炎疫情并不能影响全球化的资本和技术驱动力,但是可能影响国家的开放程度。如果疫情持续时间不是很长,经济全球化将很快会回归原有的发展轨迹,继续进行调整。各国也将继续围绕经济全球化进行斗争、妥协、再斗争,直至形成一个相对稳定的状态。因此,经济全球化可能因为应对疫情而踩下急刹车,甚至暂退半步,但很快将继续前行,向着“包容性全球化”的方向发展。  相似文献   

Predicting tsunami arrivals: Estimates and policy implications     

Dao Hua Zhang  Tsz Leung Yip  Chiu-On Ng 《Marine Policy》2009

Tsunami is one of a few kinds of natural disasters that leave people some time for escape. This escape time, which is essentially the time for the giant wave to propagate from the epicentre to a coast, has to be estimated without delay upon the occurrence of the incident. With the advancement of water wave theories, much work has been done to model the propagation of tsunamis from deep oceans to shallow water. The authors argue that while much emphasis has been put on the expansion of the high-tech early warning system and the development of complicated tsunami models, a simple-to-use yet accurate predictive model is still wanting. This paper presents a handy linear wave model, which is capable of estimating the arrival time of a tsunami with very good accuracy, as has been verified by comparison with past incidents. With the availability of such a simple model, even local communities without access to a high-tech warning system can readily estimate the time left for emergency evacuation.  相似文献   

矿产资源开发整合与区域矿业经济发展浅析——以潍坊市滨海新区卤水资源为例          下载免费PDF全文

张婧  张全健  李霞  尹斌 《山东国土资源》2008,24(7)

对矿产资源开发进行整合是集中解决矿山布局不合理，实现规模化、集约化开发的重要手段，是调整矿业结构、促进矿业经济增长方式转变的有效途径。潍坊市滨海新区通过对卤水资源进行整合，初步实现了卤水资源的规模化开采和集约化经营，并在培育矿业龙头企业的基础上，注重矿业产业链的延伸和完整化，构建生态海洋化工产业集群，从而形成比较优势和核心竞争力，促进区域矿业经济发展。  相似文献   

基于灰色马尔科夫链预测系统的设计与实现   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

杨灿  杨敏华  汪齐松 《测绘科学》2009,34(6)

通过对灰色GM[1,1]模型的算法改进,将改进后的灰色模型与马尔科夫链结合,既可以发挥灰色系统预测精确的特点,又可以利用马尔科夫链对准确预测波动性数据的优势。在灰色马尔科夫链模型的算法基础上,采用Visual Studio 2005开发环境,进行灰色马尔科夫链预测系统的设计。最后利用南方某地区十年来土地利用数据进行系统验证,结果表明,灰色马尔科夫链模型能很大地提高预测的精度和效果,符合实际要求。  相似文献   

Sequence analysis and quantitative detection of Norwalk-like viruses in cultured oysters of China     

Jun Wang  Qingjuan Tang  Zhiqin Yue  Zhaojie Li  Jin Zhang  Changhu Xue 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2008,7(2):223-227

We isolated 4 Norwalk-like viruses (NLVs) contaminated oysters from 33 Chinese oysters collected from local commer-cial sources of Shandong Province. After amplification of the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) region of NLVs genomes with RT-PCR, the open reading frame 1 (ORF1) of the RdRp was sequenced and subjected to multiple-sequence alignment. The re-suits showed that NLVs in the four isolates belong to genogroup Ⅱ. The sequence comparison showed that the similarity between four Chinese oyster isolates were higher than 99.0%, which indicated that NLVs prevalent in close areas have high homogeneity in genome sequences. In addition, the most conserved sequences between diverse NLVs were used to design primers and TaqMan probes, then the real-time quantitative PCR assay was performed. According to the standard curve of GII NLVs, the original amounts (copies) of NLVs in positive patient's fecal isolate, positive Japanese oyster isolate, and the Chinese oyster isolate were 8.9×108, 1.25×108 and 4.7×101 respectively. The detecting limit of NLVs was 1×101 copies. This study will be helpful for routine diagnosis of NLVs pathogens in foods and thus for avoiding food poisoning in the future.  相似文献